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March 27, 2023 6:06 am

Monsoon rain predictions are correct around 55% of time, reveals Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh in Parliament

The Fact News Service
Ludhiana, December 9

Sanjeev Arora, MP (Rajya Sabha) tabled two questions related to accuracy of monsoon prediction in Rajya Sabha.

Arora asked about the accuracy in prediction of monsoon precipitation at block level within the country and the State of Punjab in particular; and the resolution at which the high-performance super computers acquired by government can forecast for extreme weather and climate events- tsunamis, cyclones, extreme heat waves and cold snaps and the accuracy of the same during the last five years.

In reply, the Union Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Ministry of Science and Technology and Earth Sciences Dr Jitendra Singh, replied that presently IMD issuing Monsoon precipitation forecast at district and block level 1 to 5 days in advance. He stated that Probability of Detection (POD) for heavy rainfall warning with 24 hours lead period is 74% in 2021, which has improved by 51% in year 2021 as compared to their skill between 2002-20.

The Union Minister further stated that two High-Performance Computing (HPC) Systems, Pratyush and Mihir, installed at IITM, Pune and NCMRWF, Noida respectively have a total computing capacity of 6.8 peta flops. Along with this the Data Assimilation of NWP models has gone up to 500 GB per day. The HPC system is being used for the advanced dynamical prediction systems which are now being used for Short and Medium Range, Extended Range, Monthly and Seasonal prediction.

Arora said the Minister further revealed that presently, two Global models (GFS & NCUM) at a spatial resolution of 12 km are being used with analysis and product updates are generated 2-4 times a day valid upto 10 days. These products are regularly analyzed and incorporated day to day in the forecasts and extreme weather events. Implementation of HPC system has helped to improve the skill of general and extreme weather forecasts over the country, he added.

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