Cautionary third term for Modi

Published on: 05 Jun 2024 at 10:30 AM

Published by: factnews

With 240 seats, BJP will have to keep its alliance partners particularly TSP, JDU happy

The Fact News Service

New Delhi, June 5

The results of the 2024 general election shocked observers and pollsters by going against the forecasts made by exit polls. Although the incumbent BJP emerged as the largest party, it narrowly missed a simple majority (272) in the 543-member Lok Sabha, signaling the end of the coalition era.

By late night, the ruling NDA stood at 293 seats (having surpassed the 272 majority victory threshold), while the BJP was either leading or had won 240 seats (being 32 seats short of a majority). But the NDA’s performance fell short of the much-discussed Prime Minister’s “400 paar” assertions.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi described the decision as “historic” and a “victory of the world’s largest democracy” and at the same time the TDP pledged support to the BJP. He also hinted at plans to lay claim to form the government for a record third term.

“For the first time since 1962 an incumbent government has been repeated for a record third time,” He said this even as there were massive losses in the Hindi heartland — UP, Rajasthan, and Haryana. On the other side, the opposition INDIA alliance recorded surprising gains, garnering 234 seats. “Even after they came together, the opposition parties could not win the number of seats the BJP won on its own,” the prime minister stated.

But on Tuesday, the PM’s traditional post-results thanksgiving speech was greeted with less cheering than normal, as was to be expected, and the BJP headquarters did not dress for victory.

Losses in Uttar Pradesh

The Samajwadi Party, led by former state chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, an ally of INDIA, emerged as the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh, winning or taking the lead in 37 of the state’s 80 constituencies compared to the BJP’s 33. The Congress saw advances as well, with six leads compared to Rae Bareli’s lone victory in 2019. Late on Tuesday night, the Congress had gained 99 LS seats nationwide, a significant improvement above its pitiful totals of 44 and 52 LS seats in 2014 and 2019, respectively. The party will at last be acknowledged for the role of Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, for which it requires ten percent of the House’s votes.

In India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, the BJP, on its part, lost 29 seats after winning 62 in 2019 and 71 in 2014. This is true even though the Union Home Minister spearheaded the plan directly. According to early signs, the BJP’s choice to renominate MPs from the majority UP party backfired. Of the 303 MPs who had won in 2019, the BJP lost 132 nationally, accounting for 43% of all MPs. But, among other things, the BJP in UP paid the price of anti-incumbency today and kept 55 of its 62 MPs. The BJP lost because bread-and-butter concerns seemed to overshadow saffron themes centered around the Ram Temple, the repeal of Article 370, the Citizenship Amendment Act, the repeated invocation of infiltrators, and “mangalsutra,” among other things.

Losses in Rajasthan and Haryana

In Rajasthan, the BJP recorded 14 leads and Congress recorded eight. In a move that would strengthen the opposition Congress ahead of the state Assembly election later this year in Haryana, both parties won five seats apiece in the ten constituencies in Haryana. But in Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Delhi, the BJP triumphed. It lost one seat in Gujarat and one in Chhattisgarh.

The saffron camp was greatly cheered by news from southern and eastern India. With the exception of Karnataka, where the Congress gained eight seats and the BJP lost eight, the BJP saw significant gains across southern and eastern India.
Actor Suresh Gopi became the first BJP Member of Parliament in Kerala, ending the party’s electoral drought in the Left- and Congress-dominated state.
However, INDIA parties, led by the DMK, won a resounding majority of seats in Tamil Nadu, while the BJP, in spite of a strong personal campaign by Prime Minister Modi, was unable to secure even one seat.

Gains in Andhra and Odisha

However, the ruling party won 19 out of 21 seats in the Odisha Legislative Assembly, reducing the BJD to just one seat from the 12 it had previously won. With leads that solidified by Tuesday night, the BJP was poised to form the government even in the Odisha Assembly, having already secured a simple majority in the 147-member House.

In Andhra, along with holding 21 of the 25 LS seats in the state, the BJP is poised to form the next government as a member of the NDA alongside the TDP and the Jana Sena. The ruling state party, the YSRCP, seemed embarrassed.

In Telangana, the BJP not only performed admirably but also increased its number of Legislative Standing seats from four to eight. In Telangana, where the BRS was eliminated and Asaduddin Owaisi of the AIMIM was the only party candidate to retain his Hyderabad seat, the Congress also gained eight victories. However, BJP leaders were taken aback by the results, which reflected a clear dejection with the administration and a reconsolidation of lost support bases, including SCs, STs, and OBCs, for opposition parties like the SP in Uttar Pradesh.

The party would be concerned about the PM’s own shrinking victory margin in Varanasi, which was only 1,52,513 votes, compared to over four lakh in 2019. This is especially true given that BJP candidate Shankar Lalwani won over 11 lakh votes in Indore, possibly the largest margin in Indian history; former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, received over 8.21 lakh votes in Vidisha, and Amit Shah led with over 7,44,716 votes in Gandhinagar.