Beyond the News - FACT Analysis

West Bengal elections: Left-Congress may play a crucial role

Monish Behl
Founder- The Fact News and Political Strategist

As the British orignated state of India, West Bengal is making headlines across the country nowadays, it is Vidhan Sabha elections that going to be held on March 27. The fact cannot be denied that BJP has focused most on any state in the last few years, it is West Bengal. West Bengal, a state of eastern region and adjoining of Bangladesh, has been ruled by the Trinamool Congress led by Mamta Banerjee since 2011.

10 years ago, Mamata overthrew the rule of left parties. Now the same claim for Mamta is being made by former BJP President and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. 

The way the BJP has broken into the vote share of Congress and left in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party’s enthusiasm has increased considerably. Recent surveys also suggest the BJP becoming stronger in Bengal. 

There have been three opinion polls within the last two months and they give a rough idea to a large extent. In the first survey, the political situation of the state has changed, which Mamata Banerjee was seen to form the government, now it has come to the place of danger. 

In the survey, the graph of the ruling Trinamool Congress in the state seems to be decreasing every time, the same is seen in the increase in the alliance of BJP and Left-Congress. In the Left-Congress coalition also, the influence of the left appears to be increasing.

In order to understand the position of political parties properly in elections.

It is necessary to look at the political situation of the state in the last 40 years. At present, there is a Trinamool Congress government in West Bengal. The Chief Minister of West Bengal is Mamta Banerjee, who has been the Chief Minister of the state since 2011. Earlier, there was a Left Front government here for the last 35 years. From 1972 to 1977 the Congress had formed the Government, here.  

Congress had already enjoyed the pleasure of power in West Bengal earlier before 1970. During the tenure of the present Mamata Banerjee, the BJP has established its influence in this state. 

The BJP has not only maintained its influence but has made a dent in the stronghold of the Trinamool Congress. The BJP had shown its political influence in the last Lok Sabha elections.

Due to this, Trinamool Congress won 22 out of the total 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, BJP 18 Congress won only two seats.  The political picture of Bengal has changed rapidly during the last four months.

Mamta Banerjee has received a big setback. Three Trinamool Congress ministers, 14 MLAs and two MPs have left the party. At the same time, many ministers are still threatening to leave the party. Among the ministers who have left the party, the biggest names are Transport Minister Shubhendu Adhikari and Rajiv Banerjee. Both leaders have left the Trinamool Congress and joined the BJP. Apart from this, there are big names like former Kolkata Mayor and MLA Shobhan Chatterjee, Sabyasachi Dutta, Sunil Singh, Shubhranshu Rai, Vaishali Dalmia, Prabir Ghoshal, former Howrah Mayor Rathin Chakraborty and MP Sunil Mandal. 

Mithun Chakraborty, a film actor and influential in the state, has joined BJP on Sunday, March 7 too. This is also a big setback for the Trinamool Congress. In the election survey conducted in the last two months, in the survey of the first ABP-CNX, the Trinamool seemed to be successful in saving power. The BJP was getting around 117 seats and the Left-Congress alliance was getting 24 seats. In the final survey, the BJP was seen giving a tough fight to the Trinamool, while the Left-Congress alliance had come to 39 seats. 

The political situation is becoming clear that the Left-Congress is getting the benefit of the weak Trinamool as well as the BJP. But the kind of political situation that is happening in West Bengal shows that no major party either it is TMC or BJP  will be able to get a majority , but the Left-Congress alliance can play an important role in forming the Left-Congress government.