Scientist M. Vidyasagar says that if the vaccination campaign against coronavirus is not expedited and if people do not ensure compliance with the guidelines issued for prevention of covid-19, the third wave of coronavirus likely to come in the next 6 to 8 months. Professor Vidyasagar is a scientist involved in the ‘Sutra’ model at The Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Hyderabad. This model uses mathematics to predict the rise / fall of Covid-19 cases. Vidyasagar, however, emphasized that the Sutra model has not yet predicted a third wave, but work is underway.
Prof. Vidyasagar, referring to the research done by Italian researchers on people affected by corona, whose antibodies were declining, said, “If the antibodies are depleted, there is a possibility that immunity will also decline”. However, in this case, the immunization program needs to be further accelerated and strict adherence to the guidelines issued for safety from Covid-19 must be ensured. And if that doesn’t happen, the third wave is likely to hit in the next six to eight months. “We are also incorporating the immunity and immunization aspects into our model for our future predictions,” he said.
When a person is infected with coronavirus, antibodies that fight the coronavirus stay in the blood for at least eight months, according to a study by Milan’s San Rafael Hospital. Also, Chief Scientific Adviser K. VijayaRaghavan had said on May 5 that the third wave of Covid infection could not be avoided and preparations need to be made now to counter this new wave. However, two days later, he said that if serious steps will be taken and implemented effectively at the state, district and city levels, there might not be a third wave in the country.